Recently, the “four consecutive losses” of international crude oil prices have not affected the trend of “two consecutive rises” in domestic oil prices. On February 24, 2015, the reporter learned from a number of social monitoring agencies that the rise in international crude oil prices before the Spring Festival caused the corresponding increase in crude oil's rate of change to exceed the price adjustment redline, unless the crude oil price plummeted continuously and the current round of oil price adjustments could be grounded. Therefore, on the 27th (Friday), the new round of refined oil price adjustment window will start as scheduled, ushering in the first “two consecutive rises” after the “13-year losing streak,” and then the nation’s 93# gasoline will fully return to the Sixth Century era.

Since the domestic oil product price rose at the midnight on February 10th and was first implemented in the year, the international crude oil prices have risen due to multiple factors such as the continued reduction in US rigs and the economic growth in Europe. According to Chuangchuang Information, as of the sixth working day, the average price of major crude oil varieties in the international market has increased by 11.7% from the previous cycle.

During the Spring Festival, due to factors such as the re-use of oilfields in eastern Libya and the high level of U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, the price of New York crude oil futures fell for four consecutive trading days and fluctuate within a narrow range between 49 and 52 US dollars/barrel, closing by the 23rd. It closed at 49.45 U.S. dollars per barrel. The Brent crude oil futures prices also maintained a shocking decline, closing at $58.90 a barrel. However, this does not affect the trend of positive changes in the rate of change in the three places. The data of Anxun Siswangwang Energy Monitoring indicated that as of February 23, the refined oil price change rate index was 12.41%, corresponding to an increase of 385 yuan/ton.

In accordance with the domestic oil pricing mechanism, the principle of "a ten-day adjustment," the domestic oil price will once again usher in the price adjustment window at 24:00 on the 27th. "Comprehensive analysis, the current round of oil price adjustment will be a foregone conclusion, the rate of increase will be at least 300 yuan / ton." Zhuo Chuang analyst Hu Huichun said that this is the first time this year, refined oil two consecutive increase. At present, in most regions, the national No. 93 # gasoline is about 5.85 yuan per liter, and the No. 5 92# gasoline is about 5.98 yuan per liter. After the increase is implemented, it is expected that the nation's 93# gasoline will fully return to the six-year era.

Xue Qun, analyst at Longzhong Petrochemical Network, also believes that the rate of change in the three pre-holiday periods continues to be positive, giving good support to the domestic refined oil market. Gasoline, in particular, has already entered the peak period of the Spring Festival holiday. Before that, there have been gas stations replenishing in advance, and prices of refineries and main units have continued to increase, ranging from RMB 300 to RMB 400/t. If there is no continuous sharp drop in international oil prices in the later period, the current adjustment of refined oil prices will basically become a foregone conclusion. The corresponding increase will be at 360 yuan/ton. Affected by the upward trend in oil prices, the industry's mentality will be relatively positive. It is expected that the gasoline market will continue to rise steadily in the late period, and the price of diesel will be mainly stable.

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