Relevant experts believe that the long-standing contradiction of low natural gas prices in the country has become increasingly prominent. It has become imminent to rationalize the natural gas prices and guide the rational allocation of resources. This move represents the direction of market-oriented reforms in energy resource product prices.

Lower oil prices are in line with the overall trend of international oil prices

Since the adjustment of domestic refined oil prices on April 14th, the international market experienced a “rising first and then falling” process. After 22 working days and May 14th, the domestic price adjustment window for refined oil products began. This round of Brent, Dubai, and Xinta crude oil still maintained a positive rate of 4%, which means that The price of oil should be adjusted upwards.

However, at the time, international oil prices had dropped from US$86/bbl to US$74/bbl. The decline in international oil prices and domestic price adjustments were the first to reverse. Under this scenario, the National Development and Reform Commission did not simply increase the price of oil in accordance with the formula, but rather wait and see the future trend of international oil prices.

Soon the international oil price continued to drop. After three weeks of sharp declines, the rate of change in crude oil in Brent, Dubai, and Sinta continued to fall sharply, but the rates of the three regions have not yet been negatively “broken”. Relevant experts believe that under this circumstance, the National Development and Reform Commission promulgated an appropriate reduction of oil prices, again showing that domestic oil prices are in line with the overall trend of international oil prices.

According to relevant officials of the National Development and Reform Commission, the adjustment of domestic oil prices is mainly based on changes in the prices of relevant crude oil in the international market over a period of time. In other words, if the price of a certain crude oil in the international market changes a lot on a certain day or days, the domestic refined oil price will not be adjusted. This is mainly to avoid frequent adjustments to the domestic oil prices caused by the drastic fluctuations in oil prices in the international market.

Straighten out natural gas prices to select the right time

Natural gas prices have a positive correlation with crude oil prices. Wang Zhen, Dean of the School of Business Administration of China University of Petroleum, pointed out that in observing data from the past few years, natural gas prices generally have a positive relationship with crude oil prices. That is, the price of natural gas has risen, and natural gas prices have also risen, but the rate of increase has been different. . The increase in oil prices is large, while the increase in natural gas prices is small.

Although in the third and fourth months of this year there have also been significant increases in international oil prices, the international natural gas prices instead fell sharply from the divergence relationship, which is mainly due to people's expectations of different crude oil and natural gas, which is only a short-term phenomenon. In the long run, crude oil prices are still positively correlated with natural gas prices.

According to statistics, the price of natural gas in the world is equivalent to 60% of the equivalent calorific value of crude oil, while the price of natural gas in China is equivalent to a quarter of the value of equivalent calorific value of crude oil, and one third of the price of fuel oil is less than half the price of imported natural gas. .

Wang Zhen said that it can be seen that China's current natural gas prices are too low. This has led to an excessive increase in the use of natural gas. Projects that use natural gas as raw material and fuel have increased rapidly. Some projects are even high in energy consumption; on the other hand, they are not conducive to The international negotiations on the import of natural gas prices, as well as domestic natural gas production, have seen a "gas shortage" last year. Therefore, it is necessary to reform natural gas prices.

It is better to adjust natural gas prices at this point in time. Liu Yijun, a natural gas expert and professor at the China University of Petroleum, said that the drop in international natural gas prices means that China needs to act in a timely manner to accelerate the pace of natural gas price reforms. He believes that April to August this year is an important window period for natural gas price reform. The price adjustment shows that we decisively seize the opportunity to carry out price adjustments and related policies, and we can also increase gas prices while lowering oil prices. Reduce the impact on prices.

What Impacts of Price Adjustment on People's Livelihood

After increasing the ex-factory price of natural gas, it has an impact on the lives of residents. The industry believes that the impact on natural gas consumers is still relatively large, and the impact on residents' lives is limited.

According to the notice issued by the National Development and Reform Commission, the relationship between the price of natural gas for vehicles and the price of gasoline should be rationalized. All localities must maintain a reasonable price parity ratio with the highest retail price of gasoline No. 90 not lower than 0.75:1. In areas where there is difficulty in one step, adjustments can be made at a ratio of not less than 0.6:1 and adjustments can be made within two years.

What is the relationship between the price of natural gas for vehicles in China and the price of gasoline? This reporter learned that taking a 1.6-liter displacement car as an example, the fuel consumption per 100 kilometers is about 8 liters and the gas consumption is about 8 cubic meters. According to the national maximum retail price of gasoline No. 93, it is 6.5 yuan per liter, and the gas price per car is 29 per liter. Yuan to calculate, 100 kilometers of vehicle oil spending 52 yuan, 23 yuan gas expenditure. Obviously, the price of gas is less than half of the price of oil, and this gas price adjustment rate is 25%, so it has a greater impact on vehicle consumers.

On the other hand, after raising the ex-factory price of natural gas, although the purchase cost of local city gas companies will increase, the adjustment of gas prices will also be determined by the local government. The natural gas ex-factory base price increased by 230 yuan per 1,000 cubic meters, equivalent to 0.23 yuan per litre of natural gas. According to data from the China City Gas Association survey, the average household per household uses about 20 cubic meters of gas per month. If calculated according to this figure, the monthly gas cost per household will increase by 4.6 yuan after this price adjustment.

The relevant experts pointed out that the impact of this part, the National Development and Reform Commission's relevant supporting measures are also clear, according to the local actual situation and the established fuel price and freight price linkage mechanism, to give relevant industries and groups a certain amount of subsidies.

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